Stock Market Thread

[Apoc]

Political uncertainty is driving it, IMO.

This along with the ongoing tariff battle is what I'm hearing from my hedge fund analyst friends. They aren't convinced a recession is coming just yet.

Tariff is political, as far as I'm concerned. 

I'm convinced enough about a recession, that we're waiting out Q4 earnings before we get serious about house shopping. 

I had my last AMZN stock vest 1.5 weeks ago. I always sell on vest day, but that vest s now worth $13,600 less than it was when I sold it 12 days ago.

[noah_salvato]

Those are the reasons for the market uncertainty which are well known but not necessarily for the actual massive daily swings up and down that are resulting. Those are not normal even during times of instability.

Check this out: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-42959755

There are definitely more recent articles on this but that helps explain it

Makes sense... A large amount of the market is tied to the algorithmic trading, and as soon as the yield hit 3% the computers sold off mass amounts of stock and it just tumbles from there.

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Political uncertainty is driving it, IMO.

This along with the ongoing tariff battle is what I'm hearing from my hedge fund analyst friends. They aren't convinced a recession is coming just yet.

Tariff is political, as far as I'm concerned. 

I'm convinced enough about a recession, that we're waiting out Q4 earnings before we get serious about house shopping. 

I had my last AMZN stock vest 1.5 weeks ago. I always sell on vest day, but that vest s now worth $13,600 less than it was when I sold it 12 days ago.

I'm glad I am not in the market for a house or anything right now, the market is shaping up to take a pretty big dive the way I see it.

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[ViPER1313]

So if the value of my retirement account is tied to computer overloads gambling based on algorithms, tell me why I shouldn’t just go to Charlestown and throw it all on Black.

[Apoc]

Cause you'd pay an early withdrawal penalty. 

[WRXtranceformed]

Yep, then Amazon has killer Christmas sales and the market jumps 600 points in a single day? Lol come on

[noah_salvato]

Yep, then Amazon has killer Christmas sales and the market jumps 600 points in a single day? Lol come on

And Mastercard announced $850B in US Credit Card spending from Nov 1-Dec 24, doubling CC debt from Q3. Of course some will be paid down but this'll have a lasting impact. Plus loan defaults are projected to increase in 2019.

"I'm getting really worried at how unstable the prices of equity are getting. Stock prices should actually not move that much because their fundamentals should be rather slow and difficult to change and affect valuation like that." - Grandpa



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[WRXtranceformed]

And back down 350 points as of 11:30 EST today. Until that gets under control I'm going to be pulling back a lot of investment in the market and looking for alternative investment outlets. I'm way too conservative to play along in what's turning into a massively speculative market

[Evan]

"I'm getting really worried at how unstable the prices of equity are getting.  Stock prices should actually not move that much because their fundamentals should be rather slow and difficult to change and affect valuation like that." - Grandpa

Animal spirits. Thats nothing new or unexpected in turbulent market conditions or when there is an external shock
(but fuck Keynes)

[noah_salvato]

"I'm getting really worried at how unstable the prices of equity are getting.  Stock prices should actually not move that much because their fundamentals should be rather slow and difficult to change and affect valuation like that." - Grandpa

Animal spirits. Thats nothing new or unexpected in turbulent market conditions or when there is an external shock
(but fuck Keynes)

Agreed and agreed.

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[WRXtranceformed]

Here's another good WSJ article from a few days ago in regards to my algorithmic trading post:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-...1545785641

I was staggered by the revised number of 85% of all trading being controlled by machines / models / passive investing. The market dropped 400 some points today and then upswung over 800 points in one hour. That's ludicrous.

[noah_salvato]

Wow

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[WRXtranceformed]

Glad to see AMZN creeping back up toward 2k. Bezos just needs to stay up out of the vengeful eye of the Orange Sauron so I can keep riding this train to retirement

[V1GiLaNtE]

Glad to see AMZN creeping back up toward 2k.  Bezos just needs to stay up out of the vengeful eye of the Orange Sauron so I can keep riding this train to retirement

Got pretty close earlier this week. $40 shy I think?

[WRXtranceformed]

Glad to see AMZN creeping back up toward 2k.  Bezos just needs to stay up out of the vengeful eye of the Orange Sauron so I can keep riding this train to retirement

Got pretty close earlier this week. $40 shy I think?

Yep really close again!  It will get back there here soon enough

[rherold9]

I kinda just wanna work for Amazon just for their stock options. I'll take that yearly big bonus if I sell half and keep half for retirement lol. Do they still cap pay for stock options?

[Apoc]

I kinda just wanna work for Amazon just for their stock options. I'll take that yearly big bonus if I sell half and keep half for retirement lol. Do they still cap pay for stock options?

Amazon grants restricted stock units, not options, and base pay is capped lower than several people on this board make in base pay. Vest schedules are dependent on job level, but most that aren't exec level jobs vest twice per year. 

Keeping half the stock they give you until retirement is a pretty risky position. It's worked out the last few years, but I'm not trying to have that many eggs in any one basket. The company 401k match is in AMZN and those are the only shares I still own after seven years working there. If I still had all my shares, they'd be worth $1.7 million... but, whatever, I wanted to spend that money on shit and diversify. Can't go back!

[BLINGMW]

sold AMZN and GOOG this morn, looking for outs on a couple others

[V1GiLaNtE]

sold AMZN and GOOG this morn, looking for outs on a couple others

I should have sold on Prime Day. My plan was to sell at $2k, but thought the earnings would be higher so I held out. Womp womp

[BLINGMW]

I'm out! 

[BLINGMW]

Of course, I cannot sit on cash too long, looking at a couple high yield dividend renewable energy stocks. Anyone have PEGI (6.2% currently) or TERP (4.8%)? Seeing these guys make $ even with low oil prices and oversupply is encouraging, and with as long as it takes to get these projects done, I'd think they'd survive a recession.