Stock Market Thread

[ViPER1313]

Boys

A. vaccine. is. Not. Going. To. Be. Available. This. Winter.

From someone who’s wife works in biomedical manufacturing and mother was (up until recently) a higher up at one of the major US manufacturers in a race to release a vaccine.


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[HAULN-SS]

It doesn't have to be available, just exist. Probably be another bump when someone finally issues an all clear.

[ViPER1313]

If hospitals are being overrun it’s going to result in a second round of shutdowns. Again, just look at all the other countries that have experienced this. We are not special or the exemption here.

I will invest my money when earnings are back in line with reality and the market peak is not built off a MOMO/FOMO mentality driven by government stimulus.


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[JPolen01]

I will invest my money when earnings are back in line with reality and the market peak is not built off a MOMO/FOMO mentality driven by government stimulus.


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Basically this. I'm still in mutual funds but I'm not interested in day trading.

A financial podcast I was listening to yesterday had two Wall Street analysts as guests. They both pretty much agreed that Wall Street is basically assuming there will be another round of stimulus and that's all they care about right now. It's not linked in the reality that is the actual economy. 15 million people still unemployed and 850k filling for benefits week over week. This is not sustainable.


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[HAULN-SS]

If you're waiting on government stimulus to end, you're going to be waiting a while. Like maybe a decade? The only place you're going to make money with money is in the market for the foreseeable future. Forget thinking of the market as a measure of the economy in general.

[Gordonovski]

I will invest my money when earnings are back in line with reality and the market peak is not built off a MOMO/FOMO mentality driven by government stimulus.


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Basically this. I'm still in mutual funds but I'm not interested in day trading.

A financial podcast I was listening to yesterday had two Wall Street analysts as guests. They both pretty much agreed that Wall Street is basically assuming there will be another round of stimulus and that's all they care about right now. It's not linked in the reality that is the actual economy. 15 million people still unemployed and 850k filling for benefits week over week. This is not sustainable.


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Link to the pod, please


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[WRXtranceformed]

Did somebody say 20 something %?  Gotta pump up those rookie numbers son!

My side hustle dAy TrAdInG Edge account since I opened it at the end of March:


True return is even higher but I moved all of the MSFT shares I bought at the very bottom of the market in March over to my primary brokerage account

[ViPER1313]

I will be the first to admit I was wrong about the market direction between May-current. But I also think there is a lot of the same exceptionalism-centric thinking that was occurring in Jan-Mar of this year. Look at Australia and South Africa’s case rates from June-Aug (their winter), then realize they started with an almost 0 case rate at the offset of their winter.

The IHME is projecting another 200k dead in the USA **assuming** a 20-30% drop in mobility over current rates by Feb.

I think there is going to be a lot of the same holy-shit type panic we saw in March, and that is assuming we make it to March with a peaceful transfer of power...

I’m going stick this one out in cash until Mar or Apr of next year, or until the market is below 20k again.


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[Apoc]

I don't think a vaccine will be widely available at least late Q1.

I don't think the stock market has reflected the economy for a long time.

Still balls deep...but I don't feel need to post screenshots, LEE.

[WRXtranceformed]

Yeah not to beleaguer the obvious but if you are a long game investor and skipped market buy in over the first few months of the pandemic (and even some strategic buys more recently) you missed one of the biggest buying opportunities in recent history.

I don't see any reason to stay any cash heavier in the near future than your typical 6 months reserves unless you're worried about losing your job. I sat through a private Merrill briefing last week and they said that a blue wave + Biden presidency would likely lead to short term market gains due to the higher likelihood of generous stimulus being passed. In the long term it's very uncertain, CEOs were polled and it was evenly split 33/33/33 for growth, hodor or pull back hiring in the US depending on what laws are passed. The Fed has made it pretty clear that rates will be extremely low for another few years so there really aren't many other high return options in the near term other than the market.

[.RJ]

Yeah not to beleaguer the obvious but if you are a long game investor and skipped market buy in over the first few months of the pandemic (and even some strategic buys more recently) you missed one of the biggest buying opportunities in recent history.

So you made $10k in a bear market you must be a savant cant I subscribe to your newsletter 

I guess it would be nice to have more cash to throw in but timing the market is a fool's errand.

[WRXtranceformed]

Yeah not to beleaguer the obvious but if you are a long game investor and skipped market buy in over the first few months of the pandemic (and even some strategic buys more recently) you missed one of the biggest buying opportunities in recent history.

So you made $10k in a bear market you must be a savant cant I subscribe to your newsletter 

I guess it would be nice to have more cash to throw in but timing the market is a fool's errand.

Excuuuuuse me I made $10k in my *side hustle* account I played around with to alleviate lockdown boredom .  401k, mutual funds, kid's 529, IRAs are also all up much more significantly.  I took the last few months as an opportunity to rebalance the mutual fund portfolio as well.

YoU cAn'T tImE tHe MaRkEt is just a lazy excuse for people to not do research and put money where it's going to make you more of it in my opinion.

If it makes you feel better Chris, I wish I had bought more AMZN when I did (and not had a stop loss at 2k) and wish I had bought TSLA much earlier too 

[ViPER1313]

I just feel like the bottom hasn’t even begun to fall out of this yet. I made a good chunk of change on the down earlier this year and rode it back up, then cashed out again.

There are huge unrealized sectors of the market that have not even begun to hurt yet. A lot of the current tech bets are not going to hurt until next year when state and federal revenues shrink dramatically due to the loss of tax revenues and their contracting work takes a hit. Commercial real estate is in for an incredibly hard time over the next 5 years. The government can’t protect homeowners and renters indefinitely, and that could lead to a bank crisis unless significant stimulus measures are taken. Add a second wave of COVID.... you get the picture.


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[WRXtranceformed]

Again, in my opinion, only another nationwide complete lockdown would be enough to recreate what happened earlier this year and have it last for a longer period of time. And it would be foolish to do it.

There are some sectors that will take a long time to recover no matter what, some of those present amazing buy opportunities for long term investors.

[ViPER1313]

Again, in my opinion, only another nationwide complete lockdown would be enough to recreate what happened earlier this year and have it last for a longer period of time. And it would be foolish to do it.

There are some sectors that will take a long time to recover no matter what, some of those present amazing buy opportunities for long term investors.

And you think we are likely to avoid that.... how?


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[WRXtranceformed]

I don't really care how, I'm not paid to make those kinds of decisions. I would point out that even the WHO is now claiming that extended lock downs are causing more damage than the harm they are preventing. Quite the interesting back track now that they're starting to assess the true damage they caused beyond just the initial economic impacts.

[ViPER1313]

My take - I think people feel somewhat normal right now. The oh-shit panic of Mar and Apr has turned into (thanks to the warmer weather) a new normal where you can go wear a mask to your favorite restaurant and eat outside, take your kids to sports practice, host an outdoor get together, and COVID is not a looming threat. That is going to last for another month and a half, tops.

The cold weather will drive people indoors and people will close up the windows. Transmission is going to accelerate at a rapid pace, especially in apartment complexes and densely populated cities - it’s science, backed by history, and it’s unavoidable. No one is eating outside or going to the beach when it’s 40 outside. Travel to warmer climates is also going to be extremely risky, and their is a high chance places like Florida might re-impose travel restrictions from residents of northern climates. Indoor sports will likely become super-spreader events. And the culmination of all of this will cause our hospitals to be overrun... which will likely necessitate a return to more draconian restrictions on people’s movements. Even if the government is unwilling or unable to impose these restrictions, a large portion of the population will impose them of their own free will.

I really hope I am wrong about all of this. And maybe none of this will impact the stock market at all. But I’m investing on history and science instead of a FOMO, and if that costs me 20% in gains, fuck it.


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[Apoc]

I'm a conservative investor, but being in cash for an undetermined amount of time while you wait for the bottom to fall out doesn't seem like a plan that's ever paid off in the long run. Why not just be in the market and bail when things start to go tits up?

This winter is going to be fucked for many reasons. I'm just not interested in sitting things out and rooting against the market until there's a clearer indicator the things mentioned will actually impact the market.

[JPolen01]

^bingo


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[ViPER1313]

I’m pretty convinced that when this folds, it’s it’s going to fold rather quickly. All the new Robinhood investors in the market are going to pull out quickly when they get spooked [emoji24]


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