Stock Market Thread

[CaptainHenreh]

... but Rex told me it was just like gold?

Yeah, it is. They didn't keep it in their house, they kept it in someone else's house and it got robbed.

[Ken]

... but Rex told me it was just like gold?

Yeah, it is. They didn't keep it in their house, they kept it in someone else's house and it got robbed.

Ahh, the future. Where "money" is best kept tucked safely under your mattress...

[CaptainHenreh]

... but Rex told me it was just like gold?

Yeah, it is. They didn't keep it in their house, they kept it in someone else's house and it got robbed.

Ahh, the future. Where "money" is best kept tucked safely under your mattress...

More like 'Kept on your person until you need to use it.' 

C'mon guys, you're being obtuse. If you bought some precious metals, where would you keep them? If you weren't going to use them right away (aka, exchange for goods/services/cash) would you keep them locked away someplace safe or would you let some unlicensed, uninsured rando hold onto it because I swear guys I'm good for it, lots of other people hand me their gold to sit on.

Bitcoin isn't any different.

[Apoc]

I would not use precious metals as an investment vehicle or as pre-apocalyptic currency for trade, so your example is a false equivalency.

[CaptainHenreh]

I would not use precious metals as an investment vehicle or as pre-apocalyptic currency for trade, so your example is a false equivalency.

um...you wouldn't. But people do. A lot.

[Apoc]

No one else will agree to put money on it. 

Hmm that's weird I don't remember you asking

I have access to data that makes me subject to Amazon's insider training data. It doesn't give me a leg up on earnings, but betting with someone external to the company seems like a bad idea. I wasn't looking to bet money with other employees for the same reason - more embarrassing outcomes.

[BLINGMW]

Ok fine. 
What's with Amazon's site anyway? It was down for a bit this morning and has been down for at least a few minutes now. They seem a little large for such nonsense. Our forum has been more reliable today!

[Apoc]

Bug Closed

Reason: Unable to reproduce

;-)

[BLINGMW]

well good job, that's why they pay you the big bucks

[WRXtranceformed]

And here it starts...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...edit-cards

Don't say your boy didn't warn you! I'm not even in finance and it wasn't hard to see coming

[ViPER1313]

Who here is feeling the headwinds of another 2008 coming on?

[WRXtranceformed]

Who here is feeling the headwinds of another 2008 coming on?

To me, this smells more like a Madoff collapse on a much bigger scale with people all over the world who will never get prosecuted

[Apoc]

Many casual investors don't have physical bitcoin assets on their possession and it's traded electronically, so the wallet and gold analogy is pretty weak. The value is driven by speculation, not actual value, and everyone is sitting on unrealized gains. In other words, they're only worth something if you actually sell them. I have no doubt a lot of people have made a lot of money, but not by any actual increase in value (Google the difference in price and value, if interested). Do I wish I made money? Of course... but I'm not a fan of putting my money in something that is so susceptible to currency manipulation. Anyone who was pissed about the mortgage crisis and pro bitcoin has incongruous beliefs, in my opionion.

Bumping from page 48. 

[G.Irish]

I just wonder if the amount of money in cryptocurrency is enough to spark a market correction if there is a huge collapse. On one hand I would think no, on the other hand there is probably a non-trivial amount of people who took out loans or gambled with investor money. If that group of people is big enough, it's gonna cause problems.

[.RJ]

Who here is feeling the headwinds of another 2008 coming on?

I cant wait for all the internet financial nostradamus' to all come out and tell us about how they saw it coming.....

.... 3 years ago, posting about it ever since, with their cash in a mattress.

[ViPER1313]

Who here feels that current market valuations are in line with reality? Tesla was briefly worth more than GM and has shipped almost 0 model 3s. Amazon selling for close to $1500 a share. People were reverse mortgaging their houses to buy bitcoin.

Yet, at the same time, more and more people are falling behind on car payments and have racked up 1.5 trillion dollars in unpaid student loan debt.

My thought: as soon as the fed hikes interest rates, a lot of this investment money is going to go poof, freak people the fuck out like it did in 2008, and the whole thing falls flat on its face, like it does every time it seems too good to be true.

[G.Irish]

I cant wait for all the internet financial nostradamus' to all come out and tell us about how they saw it coming.....

.... 3 years ago, posting about it ever since, with their cash in a mattress.

The tricky thing is always the timing. I remember before 2008 when the real estate market was out of control, there were so many internet arguments over whether it was a bubble. Some people were calling it for at least 2 or 3 years before it actually burst, although I found that few people knew the actual mechanism that would cause the bubble to devastate the economy (mortgage-backed securities).

The thing with Bitcoin that is hilarious is that people don't even have any idea of why it goes up in value, they just know that there's a feeding frenzy and want to cash in. At least pre-2008, people were betting on tangible assets. Of course, the fact people were betting on real estate is probably why the bubble got so big. I can't imagine the scale of the crypto bubble is anywhere near as big, but you never really know what shenanigans are going on under the surface.

Who here feels that current market valuations are in line with reality? Tesla was briefly worth more than GM and has shipped almost 0 model 3s. Amazon selling for close to $1500 a share. People were reverse mortgaging their houses to buy bitcoin.

Yet, at the same time, more and more people are falling behind on car payments and have racked up 1.5 trillion dollars in unpaid student loan debt.

My thought: as soon as the fed hikes interest rates, a lot of this investment money is going to go poof, freak people the fuck out like it did in 2008, and the whole thing falls flat on its face, like it does every time it seems too good to be true.

I think this is a pretty rational assessment. Lots of cheap money going around, lots of hype, lots of people who don't know that they're the sucker, or betting that they'll be able to get off the train before the suckers run off the tracks.

[.RJ]

Who here feels that current market valuations are in line with reality? Tesla was briefly worth more than GM and has shipped almost 0 model 3s. Amazon selling for close to $1500 a share. People were reverse mortgaging their houses to buy bitcoin.

Stock values are a prediction of future earnings.

Explain to me why Amazon is NOT worth $1500/share?

[ViPER1313]

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amzn/pe-ratio

Edit: and yes, I realize P/E is not everything especially when it comes to tech stocks, but that is just absurd.

[Apoc]

P/E meant something when earnings was how you made your money. Now people make money the same way they with bitcoin, being early on the demand curve.