Additionally, it doesn't necessarily mean that dollars will stay Home. For example, I'm not going to buy a domestic car or motorcycle just because of a weak dollar. In the specialized world economy, the price of goods generally just goes up. We don't produce everything that we consume in this country, so prices go up and everybody suffers.
When it comes to Ryan Jenkins, the story ends with me putting him in the wall.
2009 Speed Triple | 2006 DR-Z400SM | 1999 CBR600F4 | 1998 Jeep Cherokee
-Ginger
The flip side of the coin is that more people worldwide buy American goods because they are cheaper and more foreign investors invest in American interests because they see larger returns when the dollar goes back up.
I hate economics....
Why do people just post what they are thinking? Without thinking.
2012 Ford Mustang
1995 BMW 540i/A
1990 Eagle Talon TSI AWD
asteele2 Wrote:For example, I'm not going to buy a domestic car or motorcycle just because of a weak dollar.
No, you'd buy it because all of a sudden the camry was 2k more than the impala, or whatever. The average person probably doesnt even know the dollar is weak right now, they just know that the impala is cheaper. (I'm just using two cars as an example that i figured were close in cost and features)
YOU as an informed person know the dollar as weak, but also already know that you want a bmw instead of an H-D. And more specifically, I guess I was talking more about perishables and throw-away things, than large purchases like a car or truck.
HAULN-SS Wrote:The average person probably doesnt even know the dollar is weak right now, they just know that the impala is cheaper
I have to disagree with this. Unless they have been under a rock and avoided radio, TV, and the Interweb, it would be damn near impossible for them to not realize that our economy is supposedly in the shitter. The media hype about recession and such has gotten everybody afraid that OMG the U.S. is going to fall apart and acting like retarded monkeys.
I personally haven't changed any of my habits as a result of this so-called recession and I don't think it is nearly as big of a problem as the media is making it out to be, but it could be if it continues to spiral out of control.
People can't buy american goods cause of a weak dollar because most goods aren't made in america anymore. A weak dollar just means that you pay more for shit from China or you cut back. Or worse, the Chinese could dump the weak dollar for euros, further driving down the dollar and making shit even more expensive.
This market correction is going to hurt. I just hope it doesn't hurt too bad.
Dave-Since finance is your gig, can you give us an idea of how this global credit issue is going to shake out? If corporations can't get access to credit in the immediate future, how is this not going to hurt growth and lead to a recession of some sort?
Two feet.
I think you give to much credit to the average person. The most recent thing I read said only 66% of people could name their states governor...a far less complex question than knowing whether the dollar is weak or not.
edit: and I do agree this is probably just election year bullshit for the most part.
I don't really give a damn who the governor of wherever is. And I think that's a poor indicator of 'intelligence.' You don't have to be a genius to realize that the money you spend now doesn't go as far as it did five years ago. You've gotta know who the governor, or senator, or other worthless, merrygoround, same as the last guy, is to be able to see what's going on around you?
When it comes to Ryan Jenkins, the story ends with me putting him in the wall.
2009 Speed Triple | 2006 DR-Z400SM | 1999 CBR600F4 | 1998 Jeep Cherokee
-Ginger
asteele2 Wrote:I don't really give a damn who the governor of wherever is. And I think that's a poor indicator of 'intelligence.' You don't have to be a genius to realize that the money you spend now doesn't go as far as it did five years ago. You've gotta know who the governor, or senator, or other worthless, merrygoround, same as the last guy, is to be able to see what's going on around you?
amen.
I Am Mike
4 wheels: '01 RAV4 (Formerly '93 Civic CX, '01 S2000, '10 GTI, '09 A4 Avant)
2 wheels: '12 Surly Cross-Check Custom | '14 Trek Madone 2.1 105 | '17 Norco Threshold SL Force 1 | '17 Norco Revolver 9.2 FS | '18 BMC Roadmachine 02 Two | '19 Norco Search XR Steel (Formerly '97 Honda VFR750F, '05 Giant TCR 2, '15 WeThePeople Atlas 24, '10 Scott Scale 29er XT, '11 Cervelo R3 Rival, '12 Ridley X-Fire Red)
No longer onyachin.
HAULN-SS Wrote:edit: and I do agree this is probably just election year bullshit for the most part.
A global financial crisis is not election year BS. Seriously. It's a real problem. Read up on it and the housing meltdown and I promise you'll see it as a legit problem.
Two feet.
Its hardly a "crisis", a word that has been so overused and misused that it doesnt mean anything anymore. "Crisis" is a price shock to the tune of "no one can afford to eat anymore"
Sure does get people's attention on the news though, doesnt it?
We are definately getting hit in a couple different places at once, which doesnt feel good, but ultimately its the standard cycle of economics and should self level itself just like always. Well, unless the governement dicks with things even more, like eliminating investment risk.......
1) The point is, the general public are mostly disinterested in global anything outside of smallville, BFE where they live.
2) I, you, and just about everyone else makes more than we did 5 years ago. Inflation is in check on about 95% of the things we buy.
3) Housing down 12 - 14% from the highest prices ever recorded ever does not interest me. For the worst housing crisis ever..there's sure not a lot of blood in the streets...
You live in your own little world, for sure.
When it comes to Ryan Jenkins, the story ends with me putting him in the wall.
2009 Speed Triple | 2006 DR-Z400SM | 1999 CBR600F4 | 1998 Jeep Cherokee
-Ginger
HAULN-SS Wrote:2) I, you, and just about everyone else makes more than we did 5 years ago
5 years ago most of us were taking bong hits and ordering pizza to our dorm rooms.
(09-25-2019, 03:18 PM)V1GiLaNtE Wrote: I think you need to see a mental health professional.
Taking it too literal, however, even if I was still working my part-time college job at the airport, I would be make about 6 - 7$ more an hour than I was then.
2013 Cadillac ATS....¶▅c●▄███████||▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅▅||█~ ::~ :~ :►
2008 Chevy Malibu LT....▄██ ▲ █ █ ██▅▄▃▂
1986 Monte Carlo SS. ...███▲▲ █ █ ███████
1999 F250 SuperDuty...███████████████████►
1971 Monte Carlo SC ...◥☼▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙▲⊙☼◤
guys, it's useless.
I Am Mike
4 wheels: '01 RAV4 (Formerly '93 Civic CX, '01 S2000, '10 GTI, '09 A4 Avant)
2 wheels: '12 Surly Cross-Check Custom | '14 Trek Madone 2.1 105 | '17 Norco Threshold SL Force 1 | '17 Norco Revolver 9.2 FS | '18 BMC Roadmachine 02 Two | '19 Norco Search XR Steel (Formerly '97 Honda VFR750F, '05 Giant TCR 2, '15 WeThePeople Atlas 24, '10 Scott Scale 29er XT, '11 Cervelo R3 Rival, '12 Ridley X-Fire Red)
No longer onyachin.
Mike Wrote:guys, it's useless.
To quote... well, you know.
Amen.
When it comes to Ryan Jenkins, the story ends with me putting him in the wall.
2009 Speed Triple | 2006 DR-Z400SM | 1999 CBR600F4 | 1998 Jeep Cherokee
-Ginger
Evan Wrote:Its hardly a "crisis", a word that has been so overused and misused that it doesnt mean anything anymore. "Crisis" is a price shock to the tune of "no one can afford to eat anymore"
Sure does get people's attention on the news though, doesnt it?
We are definately getting hit in a couple different places at once, which doesnt feel good, but ultimately its the standard cycle of economics and should self level itself just like always. Well, unless the governement dicks with things even more, like eliminating investment risk.......
It totally is a crisis. The global pool of capital has dried up. Apparently, most folks don't even know how much money has been lost. The simplest way that I understand it is the following:
The world's total savings which is about 73 trillion dollars (google fixed income securities) needs a safe place to invest because with that kind of loot, a low rate of return still nets a metric ass ton of money. Here's the big fact: Global savings has doubled since 2000. It was around 35-36 trillion. There's a bunch of new money in the system from new wealth created by the American tech boom, China, India, mid-east oil nation , RJ's car/moto spending spree etc etc.
Nothing is safer than the American treasury so that's where investment would naturally flow. However, Greenspan kept the fed rate at 1% which drove investment away from T-Bills and bonds etc etc into the stock market. So the global pool of money needed to find something just as safe.
A few financial analyst came up with the idea of packaging American mortgages into securities called Mortgage backed securities . It's a fancy word for assembling a bunch of loans into one big huge loan with a low low rate of default at 2-3%. So it's really safe but yields a %5 return. Whats not to like?
So long story short, a cottage industry was built around folks giving out crazy home loans for people because they wanted to "build" more mortgage backed securities for the global pool of money to chase. So basically a bunch of global money was poured into American pockets which will never be seen from again.
The owners of these large pools of money now don't even know exaclty how much they've lost so they won't loan out anymore of their money so even legit, large corporations can't get capital investment.
I think that's basically it in case you guys were ever wondering why regular folks could get a NINA (No Income, No Asset) home loan for 500,000 dollars with no money down, that's why. The banks wanted the fees from selling off the loan and since they didn't own the loan, they didn't have any incentive to insure that the borrower was legit.
Two feet.
I agree with everything you wrote Andy.
Except you just wrote about market risk and a market correction. No crisis, just business as usual.
It stings for now, but the only way to make it worse is to try to make it better.
No way is that business. There was irresponsibility all up and down the chain. Fundamental trust is in question. Bond ratings that were triple A turned out to be bogus. Mortgages were falsified and washed. People were committing fraud. Pure and simple.
Two feet.
The "fraud" is overblown, but thats irrelevant anyway.
Its called risk. Risk that the MBS buyers assumed (whether they knew it or not, there is no free lunch and no gauranteed 5% security!!!).
This is the correction.
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