07-23-2020, 03:38 PM
I think extinction will arrive much faster than 20 years. For mass market manufacturers I'm thinking maybe 5-8 years. Ford and Chevy are surely going to phase them out for the Mustang and Camaro (assuming the Camaro isn't cancelled outright). There'll be a few hold outs like the Miata but that'll be it. Porsche will try to hold on as long as they can but it'll probably only be the GT cars.
One thing that will dramatically push up the timeline is how fast EV and PHEV shifts happen. If Europe and the rest of world mandate EV's, PHEV's, and/or FCEV's, the manufacturers will have a hard time justifying the investment into ICE platforms. If the ICE platform disappears, then there won't be a hot trim with a manual transmission like the M3, Civic Type-R, etc.
One thing that will dramatically push up the timeline is how fast EV and PHEV shifts happen. If Europe and the rest of world mandate EV's, PHEV's, and/or FCEV's, the manufacturers will have a hard time justifying the investment into ICE platforms. If the ICE platform disappears, then there won't be a hot trim with a manual transmission like the M3, Civic Type-R, etc.
2018 Ducati Panigale V4
Past: 2018 Honda Civic Type-R, 2015 Yamaha R1, 2009 BMW M3, 2013 Aprilia RSV4R, 2006 Honda Ridgeline, 2006 Porsche Cayman S, 2012 Ducati 1199, 2009 Subaru WRX, 2008 CBR1000RR, 2009 Kawasaki ZX-6R, 2000 Toyota Tundra, 2005 Honda CBR600RR, 1996 Acura Integra GS-R, 1996 Acura Integra GS-R, 1997 Honda Civic EX
http://www.aclr8.com
Past: 2018 Honda Civic Type-R, 2015 Yamaha R1, 2009 BMW M3, 2013 Aprilia RSV4R, 2006 Honda Ridgeline, 2006 Porsche Cayman S, 2012 Ducati 1199, 2009 Subaru WRX, 2008 CBR1000RR, 2009 Kawasaki ZX-6R, 2000 Toyota Tundra, 2005 Honda CBR600RR, 1996 Acura Integra GS-R, 1996 Acura Integra GS-R, 1997 Honda Civic EX
http://www.aclr8.com