Stock Market Thread

[G.Irish]

I cant wait for all the internet financial nostradamus' to all come out and tell us about how they saw it coming.....

.... 3 years ago, posting about it ever since, with their cash in a mattress.

The tricky thing is always the timing. I remember before 2008 when the real estate market was out of control, there were so many internet arguments over whether it was a bubble. Some people were calling it for at least 2 or 3 years before it actually burst, although I found that few people knew the actual mechanism that would cause the bubble to devastate the economy (mortgage-backed securities).

The thing with Bitcoin that is hilarious is that people don't even have any idea of why it goes up in value, they just know that there's a feeding frenzy and want to cash in. At least pre-2008, people were betting on tangible assets. Of course, the fact people were betting on real estate is probably why the bubble got so big. I can't imagine the scale of the crypto bubble is anywhere near as big, but you never really know what shenanigans are going on under the surface.

Who here feels that current market valuations are in line with reality? Tesla was briefly worth more than GM and has shipped almost 0 model 3s. Amazon selling for close to $1500 a share. People were reverse mortgaging their houses to buy bitcoin.

Yet, at the same time, more and more people are falling behind on car payments and have racked up 1.5 trillion dollars in unpaid student loan debt.

My thought: as soon as the fed hikes interest rates, a lot of this investment money is going to go poof, freak people the fuck out like it did in 2008, and the whole thing falls flat on its face, like it does every time it seems too good to be true.

I think this is a pretty rational assessment. Lots of cheap money going around, lots of hype, lots of people who don't know that they're the sucker, or betting that they'll be able to get off the train before the suckers run off the tracks.