07-29-2011, 04:27 PM
ViPER1313 Wrote:Myself - probably neither. My thinking was more along the lines of short term investment (1 to 3 months) not quick trading.
high risk for that timeframe. for short term investments id stay cash for sure! trading is another matter entirely but you really have to know what you are doing.
my theories on what could happen.
-no debt raise: investors pull out of bonds since they are downgraded, go into the market, so stocks go up. unlikely to happen IMO because...
-no debt raise: downgrade in debt means problems for banks (downside of QE2), which means less lending, companies hoard cash and layoff which is bad for the market
2 is much more likely to happen than 1 (says recent history with the euro /greece debacle). not a time to invest IMO! If you want to trade, buying small amounts of options would be a good idea, volatility is a sure thing. id probably buy puts over calls. or straight shorting if you want to take some risk.
initial response will probably be an overreaction and a huge dip followed by rebound. thats dirty sexy money for a day trader.
if the debt ceiling is raised, i think the market will go up, but not a ton, probably to what it was early july, maybe a little higher due to emotion then settle.
id love to day trade, but its just impossible with an office job.
just my holiday inn express opinion