Stock Market Thread
(10-13-2020, 11:22 AM)ViPER1313 Wrote: I’m pretty convinced that when this folds, it’s it’s going to fold rather quickly. All the new Robinhood investors in the market are going to pull out quickly when they get spooked


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Presenting another buying opportunity if it happens  Wink
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(10-13-2020, 10:32 AM)WRXtranceformed Wrote: YoU cAn'T tImE tHe MaRkEt is just a lazy excuse for people to not do research and put money where it's going to make you more of it in my opinion.

It takes a lot more than a few minutes of internet research to bet the market, consistently over the long term.

I'm also shitting bricks a little bit because I'm a little behind in retirement savings so its mostly piling as much $$ in as I can and being somewhat aggressive about things.
(09-25-2019, 03:18 PM)V1GiLaNtE Wrote: I think you need to see a mental health professional.
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(10-13-2020, 01:15 PM).RJ Wrote:
(10-13-2020, 10:32 AM)WRXtranceformed Wrote: YoU cAn'T tImE tHe MaRkEt is just a lazy excuse for people to not do research and put money where it's going to make you more of it in my opinion.

It takes a lot more than a few minutes of internet research to bet the market, consistently over the long term.  

I'm also shitting bricks a little bit because I'm a little behind in retirement savings so its mostly piling as much $$ in as I can and being somewhat aggressive about things.


Do you rebalance your retirement portfolio based on industries that are performing well? Or are you just doing the same ETF over 10 years? 

The former is something I'd recommend... it's not like I'm day trading 1000 shares each of 12 different companies. 

Then again, I'm reading financial/economic/market news pretty much every day because I enjoy it. YMMV.
'76 911S | '14 328xi | '17 GTI | In memoriam: '08 848, '85 944

"Here, at last, is the cure for texting while driving. The millions of deaths which occur every year due to the iPhone’s ability to stream the Kim K/Ray-J video in 4G could all be avoided, every last one of them, if the government issued everyone a Seventies 911 and made sure they always left the house five minutes later than they’d wanted to. It would help if it could be made to rain as well. Full attention on the road. Guaranteed." -Jack Baruth
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I let Betterment do it for me.
(09-25-2019, 03:18 PM)V1GiLaNtE Wrote: I think you need to see a mental health professional.
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If you are behind and you are investing for your retirement many years ahead, there's no time like the present. You can't get into mega compounding mode until you put skin in the game. There is no sense in waiting it out to see if the COVIDpocalypse knocks things down another peg in the next 3-6 months because it won't matter in the grand scheme over the span of +/- 30 years. If you're already on track and trying to maximize your returns, that is a different story and it's important to understand when buy opportunities present themselves so you can get your cash off of the sidelines.

Like Chris I also read this stuff every day and consult with professional advisors. I also have them help me reevaluate my roth 401k distributions every six months or so even though that isn't under their umbrella
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(10-13-2020, 02:22 PM).RJ Wrote: I let Betterment do it for me.


If you're worried about retirement savings, I believe being more closely involved in your investments is important. Not saying robots aren't good; I'm saying you're giving someone else 100% control over something you seem to really care about. There's some cognitive dissonance there... at least, to me, there is.
'76 911S | '14 328xi | '17 GTI | In memoriam: '08 848, '85 944

"Here, at last, is the cure for texting while driving. The millions of deaths which occur every year due to the iPhone’s ability to stream the Kim K/Ray-J video in 4G could all be avoided, every last one of them, if the government issued everyone a Seventies 911 and made sure they always left the house five minutes later than they’d wanted to. It would help if it could be made to rain as well. Full attention on the road. Guaranteed." -Jack Baruth
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I put identical money in Betterment, Wealthfront, and an assortment of Vanguard funds at the same time a few years back.
Vanguard was the best performing, Wealthfront 2nd, and Betterment 3rd.

Vanguard took an evening of research and reading, but I havent touched it since. (I probably should)

Ive also considered using Vanguard's robo service but I havent looked into it recently.


And someone smarter on money stuff than I am should explain to me why paying taxes every time Betterment and Wealthfront rebalance still keeps me ahead because it sure feels like Im getting fucked on that one every year.
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(10-13-2020, 04:38 PM)Evan Wrote: And someone smarter on money stuff than I am should explain to me why paying taxes every time Betterment and Wealthfront rebalance still keeps me ahead because it sure feels like Im getting fucked on that one every year.

Yeah man that is why I prefer to speak with a human smarter than me on this topic when I do rebalance, because it may not actually make sense to give up some positions.  I don't do it that frequently (maybe once every few years unless there's dramatic shifts like recently).  You can hedge some of your tax liability by taking forced losses of underperforming funds and moving that money elsewhere, which definitely does help in the long run.  But if you're rebalancing frequently you're just constantly paying taxes on those gains and that sucks.

I also like the control over knowing when funds or individual stocks are sold because there are other ways to negate your tax liability.  I set up a 529 for my son late last year because in SC you can deduct 100% of your contributions with no limits.  So I'm taking these chunks of gains and buying down my tax liability with them while keeping them in an investment vehicle that I wanted to build anyway.  Double whammy bonus  Heart The only real downside aside from the obvious restrictions of that money being in a 529 is that you lose 5% of that up front on initial investment. But you definitely make out ahead in the long run from the tax benefits and growth in that fund, and SC's 529 is a killer program as far as they go.
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Past: 2016 GMC Canyon All Terrain Crew Cab / 2010 Jaguar XFR / 2012 Acura RDX AWD Tech / 2008 Cadillac CTS / 2007 Acura TL-S / 1966 5.0 HO Mustang Coupe
2001 Lexus IS300 / 2004 2.8L big turbo WRX STI / 2004 Subaru WRX / A couple of old trucks
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You're going to pay capital gains on the growth whether you sell it as a $20 gain or two $10 gains. The question is whether you want to pay those taxes now or later, based on what else is happening in your situation. In some cases being taxed now is better because tax rates are low, especially if you're moving it to a better performing fund. In other cases, you may want to defer your tax liability because you had a bang up year and don't want to push your total income to a higher tax bracket. Raking gains is especially a good idea if you know you already have other losses to offset those gains. The man gets his in the rebalance and your post-tax basis for said fund goes up, while you're decreasing the liability on that rebalance through other loses.

IMO, a big component is whether you're paying long or short term gains on it. That's why I like to know what's rebalanced and when. It's very rare I'm paying short term capital gains, unless I'm fleeing something that is tanking.

(10-13-2020, 05:19 PM)WRXtranceformed Wrote:
(10-13-2020, 04:38 PM)Evan Wrote: And someone smarter on money stuff than I am should explain to me why paying taxes every time Betterment and Wealthfront rebalance still keeps me ahead because it sure feels like Im getting fucked on that one every year.

The only real downside aside from the obvious restrictions of that money being in a 529 is that you lose 5% of that up front on initial investment.  But you definitely make out ahead in the long run from the tax benefits and growth in that fund, and SC's 529 is a killer program as far as they go.


To clarify, you can deduct 100% of contributions off state income tax. Your tax benefit is only as great as your state income tax liability. It's not zero, but it's not a federal deduction.

We don't use one because WA has no state income tax and there's no guarantee my kid is going to college and/or attending in the US (not all intl schools are eligible).
'76 911S | '14 328xi | '17 GTI | In memoriam: '08 848, '85 944

"Here, at last, is the cure for texting while driving. The millions of deaths which occur every year due to the iPhone’s ability to stream the Kim K/Ray-J video in 4G could all be avoided, every last one of them, if the government issued everyone a Seventies 911 and made sure they always left the house five minutes later than they’d wanted to. It would help if it could be made to rain as well. Full attention on the road. Guaranteed." -Jack Baruth
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(10-13-2020, 03:11 PM)WRXtranceformed Wrote: If you are behind and you are investing for your retirement many years ahead, there's no time like the present. 

Yeah, thats been my thinking.  I'm trying to buckle down on saving as much as we can into funds that will compound over time for the next 10 years, and at that point we can make some decisions on things like where we want to live and what kind of work we want to do, even if its working at a bike shop to pay for beer.... 

I guess we'll see what the landscape around things like healthcare and college tuition looks like then and make some decision then.
(09-25-2019, 03:18 PM)V1GiLaNtE Wrote: I think you need to see a mental health professional.
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(10-12-2020, 08:31 PM)ViPER1313 Wrote: Boys

A. vaccine. is. Not. Going. To. Be. Available. This. Winter.

From someone who’s wife works in biomedical manufacturing and mother was (up until recently) a higher up at one of the major US manufacturers in a race to release a vaccine.


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Maybe publicly, but it will be available for the military before thanksgiving.

(10-13-2020, 06:13 PM)Apoc Wrote: You're going to pay capital gains on the growth whether you sell it as a $20 gain or two $10 gains. The question is whether you want to pay those taxes now or later, based on what else is happening in your situation. In some cases being taxed now is better because tax rates are low, especially if you're moving it to a better performing fund. In other cases, you may want to defer your tax liability because you had a bang up year and don't want to push your total income to a higher tax bracket. Raking gains is especially a good idea if you know you already have other losses to offset those gains. The man gets his in the rebalance and your post-tax basis for said fund goes up, while you're decreasing the liability on that rebalance through other loses.

IMO, a big component is whether you're paying long or short term gains on it. That's why I like to know what's rebalanced and when. It's very rare I'm paying short term capital gains, unless I'm fleeing something that is tanking.

(10-13-2020, 05:19 PM)WRXtranceformed Wrote:
(10-13-2020, 04:38 PM)Evan Wrote: And someone smarter on money stuff than I am should explain to me why paying taxes every time Betterment and Wealthfront rebalance still keeps me ahead because it sure feels like Im getting fucked on that one every year.

The only real downside aside from the obvious restrictions of that money being in a 529 is that you lose 5% of that up front on initial investment.  But you definitely make out ahead in the long run from the tax benefits and growth in that fund, and SC's 529 is a killer program as far as they go.


To clarify, you can deduct 100% of contributions off state income tax. Your tax benefit is only as great as your state income tax liability. It's not zero, but it's not a federal deduction.

We don't use one because WA has no state income tax and there's no guarantee my kid is going to college and/or attending in the US (not all intl schools are eligible).


Everything here at the top especially. I have rebalanced a couple times but tried to time it for best case tax scenario. At the end of the day though for the next 10-15 years I hope I am only making more each year (and imagine most are in the same boat). So just get it done if it makes sense based on your risk assessment.

I do 529 for the tax advantage. 2 kids so a good hedged bet one of them uses in state, unfortunately NC 529 advantages weren’t as good as VA.
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Yes that is correct Chris, there are only a few states that have no state income tax and SC ain't one of them.

The short term vs long term gains is a good point, although one thing to remember is that when you retire your income is most likely going to be lower than when you were working and you will probably be in a lower tax bracket. I would personally rather save most of the big sell offs / investment shifts for then so I'm not getting wrecked at the height of my career earnings. Although none of us know what tax laws are going to look like at that point (probably higher for most of us). That's why I've been stacking as much as I can in tax shelters. The IRS loves me right now but they won't when I retire
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Yeah, everyone's gotta make that call for themselves. Really my point is understand your tax situation and don't be afraid to take the reins. I tend to adjust future investments way more than I rebalance current.

Realistically speaking, long term capital gains now are at a 15% rate. The effective tax rate for $100k/year in pre-tax retirement is 18%. If you aren't paying taxes now (like I know you do), rebalances are probably close to a wash. What we were talking about, though, is moving money around to ensure you max on current growth. Moving money costs money. Hopefully the cost is lower than the extra growth!
'76 911S | '14 328xi | '17 GTI | In memoriam: '08 848, '85 944

"Here, at last, is the cure for texting while driving. The millions of deaths which occur every year due to the iPhone’s ability to stream the Kim K/Ray-J video in 4G could all be avoided, every last one of them, if the government issued everyone a Seventies 911 and made sure they always left the house five minutes later than they’d wanted to. It would help if it could be made to rain as well. Full attention on the road. Guaranteed." -Jack Baruth
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(10-14-2020, 12:14 AM)Apoc Wrote: Yeah, everyone's gotta make that call for themselves. Really my point is understand your tax situation and don't be afraid to take the reins. I tend to adjust future investments way more than I rebalance current.

Realistically speaking, long term capital gains now are at a 15% rate. The effective tax rate for $100k/year in pre-tax retirement is 18%. If you aren't paying taxes now (like I know you do), rebalances are probably close to a wash. What we were talking about, though, is moving money around to ensure you max on current growth. Moving money costs money. Hopefully the cost is lower than the extra growth!
You tha real mvp, you described it much more eloquently than I could  Cool
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Past: 2016 GMC Canyon All Terrain Crew Cab / 2010 Jaguar XFR / 2012 Acura RDX AWD Tech / 2008 Cadillac CTS / 2007 Acura TL-S / 1966 5.0 HO Mustang Coupe
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(10-13-2020, 08:48 PM)D_Eclipse9916 Wrote: Maybe publicly, but it will be available for the military before thanksgiving.


Lol what

This isn't China man. The drug companies have been clear as day, none have made it through the entire trial process yet. And that's not even the biggest hurdle. We can't manufacture enough doses even for the military in a month. We don't have the viles for storage, syringes for administering it, or the deep freezers, thousands of health care facilities will need to store it.


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(10-14-2020, 07:50 AM)JPolen01 Wrote:
(10-13-2020, 08:48 PM)D_Eclipse9916 Wrote: Maybe publicly, but it will be available for the military before thanksgiving.


Lol what

This isn't China man. The drug companies have been clear as day, none have made it through the entire trial process yet. And that's not even the biggest hurdle. We can't manufacture enough doses even for the military in a month. We don't have the viles for storage, syringes for administering it, or the deep freezers, thousands of health care facilities will need to store it.


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This isn’t rumor or guessing. Just repeating what I hear on my job calls. I also said available, not “given to every single person”. But believe what you want.

FYI- this isn’t super secret or scandal or “the government” is out to get you. This is all publicly available knowledge.
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They got them Trump Shots from Vlad after he test drove it on his daughter
Posting in the banalist of threads since 2004

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Past: 2016 GMC Canyon All Terrain Crew Cab / 2010 Jaguar XFR / 2012 Acura RDX AWD Tech / 2008 Cadillac CTS / 2007 Acura TL-S / 1966 5.0 HO Mustang Coupe
2001 Lexus IS300 / 2004 2.8L big turbo WRX STI / 2004 Subaru WRX / A couple of old trucks
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Yeah I'm still calling bullshit. I'm actively working on setting up Operation Warpspeed vaccination sites and it is an absolute shit show of logistics and requirements changing daily.

"Moncef Slaoui, the head of Operation Warp Speed, the government project to push along the COVID-19 vaccine development, suggested the first Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for a vaccine will likely be around Thanksgiving."

So if the EUA is available around Thanksgiving, how will a vaccine for any number of military people be manufactured and administered by then?

I'm not saying it's impossible, but based on what Fauci and CEOs of the major drug companies currently in trials have publicly stated as well the head of Operation Warpspeed, I think it's extremely unlikely.

https://www.biospace.com/article/operati...nksgiving/


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I have it on good authority that we won't need a vaccine and it'll be gone after the election. I haven't asked those people saying it if they're doctors, but they seemed confident.
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How about we just agree that it's unlikely for a vaccine to be available *enough* to impact the market?
'76 911S | '14 328xi | '17 GTI | In memoriam: '08 848, '85 944

"Here, at last, is the cure for texting while driving. The millions of deaths which occur every year due to the iPhone’s ability to stream the Kim K/Ray-J video in 4G could all be avoided, every last one of them, if the government issued everyone a Seventies 911 and made sure they always left the house five minutes later than they’d wanted to. It would help if it could be made to rain as well. Full attention on the road. Guaranteed." -Jack Baruth
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