Formula 1 2006 by G

[G.Irish]

Intro
Its that time of the year again as many are anxiously awaiting the beginning of the 2006 Formula 1 Grand Prix season. As I type, it is 27 days, 9 hours, and 36 minutes until the season opener in Bahrain. Personally I think Bahrain is a terrible venue but hey, they paid the billz.

Anyway last season saw Fernando Alonso become the youngest world champion for the Renault Formula 1 team, who also won the manufacturer's championship. From the beginning of the season Alonso set the pace and was never really in true danger of losing the driver's title.

However, McLaren Mercedes had a serious shot at taking the manufacturer's title with the blistering fast yet unreliable MP4-20 driven by Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya. Had their car not suffered so many mechanical failures Kimi would've easily taken the driver's title and McLaren the constructor's title.

But, as they say, to finish first, first you must finish.

2006 Rules Changes
For 2006 the major rules change is that the engines are being reduced from 3.0L V10's to 2.4L V8's. The old V10's were knocking on the door of 1000 hp but now most estimates peg the V8's at around a more pedestrian 750 hp.

This rules change will make an efficient aerodynamic package all the more important while rewarding those who can adapt to the new formula most quickly.

The other major rules change is that now tir changes are allowed again. In 2005 the teams had to use the same tires from qualifying all the way through the end of the race. It is thought that this posed a huge challenge to Bridgestone which in turn ruined Ferrari's season. Now that this factor is gone, expect Ferrari to look much better.

2006 Team Line Ups
Renault
Fernando Alonso
Giancarlo Fisichella

McLaren Mercedes
Kimi Raikkonen
Juan Pablo Montoya

Ferrari
Michael Schumacher
Felipe Massa

Toyota
Jarno Trulli
Ralf Schumacher

Honda F1
Jenson Button
Rubens Barrichello

Williams Cosworth
Mark Webber
Nico Rosberg ®

Red Bull (Ferrari Powered)
David Coulthard
Christian Klien

BMW Sauber
Nick Heidfeld
Jacques Villeneuve

Midland F1 (Toyota powered)
Tiago Monteiro
Christian Albers

Scuderia Toro Rosso (Cosworth powered)
Scott Speed®
Vinantonio Liuzzi®

Super Aguri Racing (Honda powered)
Takuma Sato
Unknown

Preseason testing
The preseason tests run at several tracks over the winter can be a good indicator as to where the teams are relative to each other. This preseason has shown Renault to have the quickest outright pace at the hands of Alonso. This is no surprise as Renault has had one of the top aerodynamic packages for a few years running now.

However, on more than one occasion, Honda's new RA106 at the hands of Jenson Button has come within a hair of Alonso's Renault R26 (as close as 3 thousandths of a second). The Honda F1 team has also turned the most kilometers during the preseason testing with a strong record of reliability.

The other team that has been consistently strong during testing is Ferrari. At first their test times were middle of the pack but now the new Ferrari 248 has been picking up speed and is right there in the hunt for the top of the time sheets.

McLaren has been surprisingly slow for most of the preseason until the latest test where Montoya and their test driver Pedro de la Rosa were able to clock more competitive times.

G's 2006 Punditry

Here's how I rank the teams for the beginning of the season
1. Renault

2. Honda

3. Ferrari

4. Williams

5. McLaren??? - McLaren has been uncharacteristically slow, which could be signs of a disastrous year like 2004. Williams has shown flashes of great speed here and most signs point to the Cosworth V8 as the most powerful engine in the series thus far.

6. BMW Sauber
7. Toyota
8. Red Bull
9. Toro Rosso
10. Midland F1
11. Super Aguri

Best Driver Lineups
1. Kimi/Juan
2. Button/Barrichello
3. Alonso/Fisichella

In for a rough season:
Super Aguri, Toyota, McLaren, Takuma Sato, Jacques Villeneuve, Massa

Surprise finishes - Williams Cosworth, Scuderia Toro Rosso
Williams didn't look too hot in 2005 but with Cosworth power, Bridgestone tires, and a good driver lineup they may sneak in a surprise victory

Scuderia Toro Rosso is Red Bull's second team and was formerly the Minardi team. Minardi has been the perennial dog at the back of the grid but with Red Bull's funding they might actually be able to do something this season.

The real x-factor is that they are the only team that will be running a restricted V10 next season. Apparently, the FIA made a rules provision to allow the backmarker teams to run a V10 because they figured they wouldn't have the money to design a new V8. It turns out that when the top teams have run the restricted V10's they were faster than the unrestricted V8 cars. Toro Rosso might be able to use this to their advantage to finish higher than the dead fucking last like Minardi did.

Of course, they probably won't finish last anyway because now they have Super Aguri which will undoubtedly be dog slow for at least the first half of the season. More on them later.

Most Likely to be left in the cold
Felipe Massa, Giancarlo Fisichella

Getting paired with Michael Schumacher on Scuderia Ferrari is both a blessing and a curse. Poor Massa is undoubtedly going to get smoked and there are quite a few hot shoes who would love to take his seat. Not the least of which includes one 5-time Moto GP champion, Valentino Rossi.

Fisichella never got his dream of getting with Scuderia Ferrari but he's gotten outshined by his teammate anyway. Their team boss Flavio Briatore probably would not hesitate to replace him, especially now that Fisi has passed the 32 year old mark.

Much more to come, comment away!

[Maengelito]

are we gonna see this at indy again this year?

[G.Irish]

Now that tire changes are allowed I'd have to say no. Still, I think the USGP attendance is going to suck because of last year.

[Hunter]

Thanks for the write up, Its a great summary for people like me dont know a lot about the teams, but love to watch the races.

[G.Irish]

Guys to watch:


Scott Speed, Nico Rosberg, Anthony Davidson (Friday driver), Narain Karthikeyan (Friday driver, the world's fastest Indian)

Scott Speed
Yes, that really is his name. He's the only American in F1 for some time and a lot of people have big hopes in him. One of the drivers from the first class of the Red Bull American Driver Search, Scott Speed came from a karting background in the US. Its said that during the Red Bull contest that his attitude was brash and arrogant but he was so quick they couldn't deny him the seat.

He's in the second slowest car on the grid (in from the Super Aguri for now) but as I pointed to before, the Toro Rosso might be able to sneak in a surprise finish.

Most Likely to be Signing with Another Team by the End of the Season
Kimi Raikkonen, Juan Pablo Montoya, Anthony Davidson

During this offseason McLaren boss Ron Dennis scored a major coup by signing reigning champion Fernando Alonso. However, in doing so, he is basically saying that either Juan or Kimi has to go. Unfortunately for the Ronster, I think bout Juan and Kimi will elect to jump ship.

Several times in the press the Ronster or one of his staff have made comments to the effect that they would have won the championship had their drivers made less mistakes. Certainly true, but the cars flat out broke many more times than their drivers threw things away. In making those comments the McLaren organization has virtually ensured that neither driver will want to re up with them.

Kimi


For awhile now the rumor has been Kimi at Ferrari. He would certainly make a suitable replacement for ole Schumacher. However, several key team personnel are due to retire in the near term future for Ferrari, so it is entirely possible that Ferrari is headed for another extended period of uncompetitiveness.

The other big rumor for Kimi is Toyota. They've got the biggest bankroll in F1 and a lot of reputation at stake. The pressure has been mounting for results at Toyota and getting Kimi would be a huge boon for them. Supposedly Toyota has put a $100 million contract on the table for Kimi.

Juan
Juan has several options but right now Renault seems to be front runner since their main sponsor is Telefonica Movistar (a Spanish company, and Montoya is Colombian). Telefonica certainly can't follow Alonso to McLaren since McLaren is sponsored by a competitor (Vodafone).

Anthony Davidson
Ant has been a test driver for BAR Honda for a few years now and has never failed to post fast times (during all test sessions and Friday practice). However its been high time that he gets a race seat and last season Williams was talking to him but BAR Honda retained his services.

Davidson was apparently over a seat next to Takuma Crasho at Super Aguri but the Honda F1 team principal apparently convinced him to stay with the factory Honda team as the Friday driver. This works out well for Honda F1, but one has to wonder if poor Ant will ever get to race.

[Feersty]

Thanks for your vast racing knowledge G.

[Yahosh]

Boo to the V8s
Yay for tire changes again
Boo to there only being one tire manufacturer starting in 2008 (I read this somewhere, anyone else heard this?)
Yay to the possibility of Ferrari being competitive this year.

$100 million for Kimi?? Isn't that more than Schumi makes? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Kimi caught drinking and partying before races last season? Toyota can have him I say, Ferrari needs to get a hold of Alonso, he's the next superstar. But since that's not gonna happen I guess they'll just have to deal with Massa. On that note... does anyone know why Barrichello left? I always thought that he and Schumi made a great team.

[.RJ]

Bring back *real* tires (slicks), and cut back on the aero - all the little winglets, barge boards, fins, devil horns, etc make the cars look cluttered - with less aero, and more mechanical grip = more passing

[G.Irish]

Yes, Formula 1 is going to a control/spec tire in 2007. Michelin wasn't even interested in participating so they didn't even bid to become the control tire, so Bridgestone it is. The teams running Bridgestones now will probably have a significant advantage going into 07.

$100 million is probably for a multi-year contract, it'd be absurd to pay Kimi that for one season unless it guaranteed winning the championship.

Kimi's strip club shenanigans were pretty amusing, especially considering how his nickname is 'the Iceman'. Guess he turns into Rick James when he gets in the titty club.

Barrichello left Ferrari because he knew that there was no way he'd get equal treatment with MS around. Then there's the fact that fellow Brazilian Gil de Ferran is the sporting director at Honda F1. And of course Ayrton Senna raced for Honda, whom Rubinho idolizes.

If Rubinho wants to win a championship (as all drivers do) he pretty much had no choice but to leave Ferrari, where he would have retired as a number 2. Of course, Button might end up overshadowing him anyway.

[G.Irish]

Bring back *real* tires (slicks), and cut back on the aero - all the little winglets, barge boards, fins, devil horns, etc make the cars look cluttered - with less aero, and more mechanical grip = more passing

That is best left to the discussion about the impending split of F1 as we know it...

[.RJ]

That is best left to the discussion about the impending split of F1 as we know it...

Yes, certainly worth watching.

Bernie gave an ultimatum to the teams that have not signed the extended concorde agreement, that they will not be guaranteed a spot on grid for 2007 and beyond if they do not sign now.

[Yahosh]

Good point about Barrichello. Well, I hope he wins a championship... after MS retires . Um, what is this split that you guys are talking about? I need to catch up on my F1 reading!

[G.Irish]

The possible split in F1 would need its own thread to explain it all.

I updated my prediction for where each team is at. Honda and Ferrari just completed a test at Bahrain (site of the season opener) and both Hondas were ahead of Schumacher's 248 with Button about one second faster.

To be fair, Michael's car broke early but that's still bad news for Ferrari to have big mechanical failures this late in the preseason. Still, the car is fairly fast but now I'm thinking Williams can threaten them.

I downgraded McLaren because now one of the tech directors has said in the F1 press that they are not where they should be at this point. Not good.

The Super Aguri car has finally done its shakedown test. We should all bet on how far off pace they'll be for the first race. I'll post the story behind Super Aguri Honda later.

[G.Irish]

This is why I don't like Alonso (talking about Rossi):

"Until we see him race we won't know his true potential, but it will be very difficult for him," he said. "He might finish fifth or even get on the podium some time, but I could do the same on the bikes if I was given a bit of time to practise."

Yeah right asshole, I'd love to see you test on a GP bike and post a top ten time.

[G.Irish]

A little more personal punditry:

Most likely to be the butt of KABLAMO! jokes (engine failures)
McLaren

Most likely to crash (and take someone with them)
1. Takuma Sato
2. Mark Webber
3. Michael Schumacher/Juan Pablo Montoya

Schumie and JPM are both very hungry and at times over aggressive drivers. Since Michael is probably very eager to avenge his terrible 2005 season I predict he might be attempting more than a few over optimistic passes.

[G.Irish]

5 days, 18 hours, and 4 minutes!

Welp, we're into the final countdown and it looks like this may be a season with quite a few different faces at the front.

Ferrari was looking suspect early in the season but now it looks like their program is starting to look decent. Ferrari and Honda were the only two teams to test at Bahrain during the preseason, with Ferrari staying there for the most time out of the two. The data both teams collected there should prove invaluable at the season opener there this Sunday.

More to follow...

[G.Irish]

A lot of the top teams didn't run Friday practice 1 because they wanted to wait till the sand/dust got swept from the surface.

Friday Practice 2 times:

Pos Driver Team Time Laps
1. Davidson Honda (M) 1:31.353 28
2. M.Schumacher Ferrari (B) 1:31.751 + 0.398 15
3. Wurz Williams-Cosworth (B) 1:31.764 + 0.411 27
4. Massa Ferrari (B) 1:32.175 + 0.822 13
5. Alonso Renault (M) 1:32.538 + 1.185 13
6. Liuzzi Toro Rosso-Cosworth (M) 1:32.703 + 1.350 24
7. Doornbos Red Bull-Ferrari (M) 1:32.926 + 1.573 24
8. Fisichella Renault (M) 1:33.215 + 1.862 14
9. Button Honda (M) 1:33.226 + 1.873 12
10. Kubica BMW-Sauber (M) 1:33.244 + 1.891 26
11. Klien Red Bull-Ferrari (M) 1:33.557 + 2.204 8
12. Raikkonen McLaren-Mercedes (M) 1:33.577 + 2.224 11
13. Montoya McLaren-Mercedes (M) 1:33.726 + 2.373 15
14. Heidfeld BMW-Sauber (M) 1:33.848 + 2.495 9
15. Jani Toro Rosso-Cosworth (M) 1:33.900 + 2.547 24
16. Speed Toro Rosso-Cosworth (M) 1:34.284 + 2.931 22
17. Webber Williams-Cosworth (B) 1:34.333 + 2.980 5
18. Barrichello Honda (M) 1:34.384 + 3.031 9
19. Coulthard Red Bull-Ferrari (M) 1:34.432 + 3.079 7
20. Monteiro MF1-Toyota (B) 1:34.459 + 3.106 14
21. Rosberg Williams-Cosworth (B) 1:34.953 + 3.600 5
22. Trulli Toyota (B) 1:35.170 + 3.817 18
23. Winkelhock MF1-Toyota (B) 1:35.686 + 4.333 24
24. R.Schumacher Toyota (B) 1:35.898 + 4.545 11
25. Villeneuve BMW-Sauber (M) 1:36.264 + 4.911 8
26. Albers MF1-Toyota (B) 1:36.314 + 4.961 16
27. Sato Super Aguri-Honda (B) 1:37.588 + 6.235 19
28. Ide Super Aguri-Honda (B) 1:39.021 + 7.668 21

It looks like a lot of the teams are going very conservative in order to save their engines. The new regulations from 2005 require the engines to last 2 race weekends. An engine failure before then results in a ten grid spot penalty at the next race (so if you blow an engine in practice you lose ten spots at the start of the race that weekend).

The only top tier teams that are allowed a third driver for Friday practice are Honda and BMW Sauber. Since the 3rd driver doesn't have to save his engine he can go as fast as he likes so that pretty much tells you where the BMW Sauber and Honda cars are in ultimate speed.

Looks like Ferrari's test at Bahrain over the winter paid dividends...

[Mike]

sato got rolled.

[G.Irish]

sato got rolled.

As long as he doesn't take anyone else out while getting lapped.

[ScottyB]

G, you should be a race commentator