How bout them skins?

JPolen01 · 10-19-2015, 10:24 AM

WRXtranceformed Wrote:I will be glad when they do because honestly seeing a million of their commercials during any sporting event is getting pretty annoying.

This x 100,000,000. Fuck these companies. What a scam.

HAULN-SS · 10-19-2015, 01:09 PM

I definitely agree that the commercials and the way they have approached this are annoying as hell. While I don't think they are a scam in the same way that Poker companies were definitely cheating with their online sites, they are definitely far more complicated than the average person understands. There's no such thing as picking your favorite players, or having a gut feeling, or studying stats that can guarantee a winner. With really careful thought you might be able to get in the top half of contests over a sufficient sample size with some regularity, but jackpot winners are pure luck.

WRXtranceformed · 10-19-2015, 02:26 PM

MMmm I mean aren't they under DOJ / FBI investigation right now? I'm sure some of that goes beyond the fact that they are effectively gambling sites and looking into whether or not there's some shady stuff going on internally

Apoc · 10-19-2015, 03:23 PM

I've been intrigued, but WA is one of four states where they're illegal. I'm kinda glad they've saved me the hassle.

HAULN-SS · 10-20-2015, 09:42 AM

Yeah, they are under investigation, and probably should be. Some states haven't allowed them from the get-go, but NV just recently blocked them from operating in the state until they register with the state gaming commission. This probably has more to do with NV state casinos wanting to get in on the money, but does present a catch 22 to these sites. If they register with the gaming commission they are more or less admitting they are gambling. Some law firm hired by the sites cleared that one employee of using insider info to win, but who knows if that is legit or not. I don't think he had anything magical to predict the future, but probably has more access to info than the average person for sure. You can buy fantasy data from websites on a subscription basis..usually more expensive the more up to date it is.

Just for the record, I built my model using data from fantasydata.com This was worth it to me, to have some numbers to play around with. There are projections and salary data, and some other stats. The model is only as good as whatever your original data source is, which is subjective. I suspect the draft kings employee may have been able to make picks using a lot of high quality data (that's expensive), but not necessarily "secret" or cheating. For the record, my original $50 has parlayed into $635 in two weeks.

For "control" i also tried to play some picks off the top of my head - that lineup didn't win anything.

JPolen01 · 10-20-2015, 10:06 AM

HAULN-SS Wrote:d salary data, and some other stats. The model is only as good as whatever your original data source is, which is subjective. I suspect the draft kings employee may have been able to make picks using a lot of high quality data (that's expensive), but not necessarily "secret" or cheating.

They are alleging that the employees had access and used information after picks were locked in for the week. Like, number of people who picked so and so, etc.

WRXtranceformed · 10-20-2015, 10:13 AM

I have a buddy who plays in the MLB and he said that it sounds like MLB leadership may get implicated in some of what's going down. Would be quite the double standard to ban Pete Rose for life but then line your pockets with a gambling site based on the sport you manage.

HAULN-SS · 10-20-2015, 12:01 PM

Yeah, I definitely don't agree that the sports associations themselves are so enamored with these types of sites. It's one thing for ESPN, et al to be giving out picks or whatever, but another entirely for the organizations themselves to be promoting it.

"They are alleging that the employees had access and used information after picks were locked in for the week. Like, number of people who picked so and so, etc."

How does that help you exactly? In this past week, if I knew after the fact that 2% of people picked Stafford, what did I gain, exactly? (He went on to have a 400 yd game) I have some theories on this but I'm interested to hear what you think.

Ken · 10-20-2015, 03:30 PM

HAULN-SS Wrote:Yeah, I definitely don't agree that the sports associations themselves are so enamored with these types of sites. It's one thing for ESPN, et al to be giving out picks or whatever, but another entirely for the organizations themselves to be promoting it.

"They are alleging that the employees had access and used information after picks were locked in for the week. Like, number of people who picked so and so, etc."

How does that help you exactly? In this past week, if I knew after the fact that 2% of people picked Stafford, what did I gain, exactly? (He went on to have a 400 yd game) I have some theories on this but I'm interested to hear what you think.

because in a league where multiple people can pick Aaron Rodgers, etc - what makes or breaks you are the outliers that no one picked and you scout and see they have a favorable matchup.

HAULN-SS · 10-20-2015, 04:07 PM

Theoretically that is already factored in - the low popularity guy has a lesser salary than Rodgers. I agree that you want an outlier that is cheap, and actually does good. This would allow me to pick a stud running back for example. However, it doesnt hurt you if you and everyone else picked Rodgers..if he does good, everyone goes up, and in the event of a tie you chop the prize pot. If you pick a player that is cheap, and hope he has a career game vs. an opponent this week, that IS gambling. However, the difference between this and horse racing, is that the shitty odds against an outlier quarterback are not a wager multiplier. In horse racing, this would make sense, you pick the 1/17 horse instead of the 3/5 favorite because you want to win more . If the shittier horse comes in, your dollar just won you 17.

On these fantasy sites, you just have to hope that the money you saved on your cheap player translated into dollars better spent on more 'lock' players that are almost guaranteed to do good.

Ken · 10-21-2015, 09:09 AM

HAULN-SS Wrote:Theoretically that is already factored in - the low popularity guy has a lesser salary than Rodgers. I agree that you want an outlier that is cheap, and actually does good. This would allow me to pick a stud running back for example. However, it doesnt hurt you if you and everyone else picked Rodgers..if he does good, everyone goes up, and in the event of a tie you chop the prize pot. If you pick a player that is cheap, and hope he has a career game vs. an opponent this week, that IS gambling. However, the difference between this and horse racing, is that the shitty odds against an outlier quarterback are not a wager multiplier. In horse racing, this would make sense, you pick the 1/17 horse instead of the 3/5 favorite because you want to win more . If the shittier horse comes in, your dollar just won you 17.

On these fantasy sites, you just have to hope that the money you saved on your cheap player translated into dollars better spent on more 'lock' players that are almost guaranteed to do good.

Right, but some people tend to pick the same outlier - if you pick a different one that outperforms, then you have an advantage.

Login




Remember me Lost Password?