Electile Dysfunction (Current students plz look!)

[DavidM]

538 is gives Trump a 10% chance of winning and R a 25% chance of retaining control of the Senate, so yes.

Based on their forecasts, the most likely scenario is a D sweep... but, also, the weatherman gets shit wrong all the time too sooooo YMMV.

Right. But those two results are highly correlated yea? So there's probably higher than a 2.5% chance that the R's win both (because R's win the Senate in way more than 25% of those Trump wins), and lower than a 7.5% of the Trump + D Senate scenario.