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+--- Thread: How bout them skins? (/showthread.php?tid=4864)
- Feersty - 12-22-2008
How about that win, Ole!
- Apoc - 12-28-2008
Well at least the Skins won't finish last in the division.
edit: okay so I was wrong but that's not any consolation
- Mike - 12-28-2008
hooray for always playing to the level of your opponent!
for next year: fire suisham, fire smoot, draft linemen.
- Apoc - 12-28-2008
Evan on Aug 24 Wrote:my season prediction: 8-8
You should be handicapping for Vegas.
- DavidM - 12-28-2008
Mike Wrote:hooray for always playing to the level of your opponent!
for next year: fire suisham, fire smoot, draft linemen.
Also, resign hall
- .paul - 12-28-2008
fire suisham, do something with campbell and get colt ready, draft linemen, draft linemen, add some more plays to the book. still to predictable.
- stevegula - 12-29-2008
.paul Wrote:fire suisham, do something with campbell and get colt ready, draft linemen, draft linemen, add some more plays to the book. still to predictable.Honestly, I'm kind of pissed that the second/third stringers didn't get any play time yesterday. Did it really matter if we won that game? Why wasn't Colt Brennan out there getting real football time and not pansy preseason football time?
- Evan - 12-29-2008
so do you guys believe me yet about chris horton? he even got burned bad by a tight end yesterday. he makes good plays around the line of scrimmage when he blitzes which gets him attention and press, but he is a joke down field when he actually has to play his position.
Ive got no predictions for the offseason. It could be a crazy fire-fest housecleaning, or the team could plod along and maybe finish 9-7 next year.
flop of the year: tie between jason taylor and jason campbell
other big dissapointments: the rookie WRs
surprise of the year: deangelo hall
the guy to keep even if you fire the entire rest of the team: London Fletcher
most overrated: the defense. "top 5 in the league" on paper doesnt mean much when the D cant make critical stops in the 4th quarter, cant create turnovers, and cant put pressure on the qb.
(honorable mention: chris horton)
what I would do if I was in charge: Id love to clean house and rebuild from the ground up, but without many draft picks or young talent they would be terrible for at least 2 seasons. Depends on what kind of draft picks we could get for Moss and Portis but I dont think those guys are as marketable as we would think they are.
Im not giving up on Zorn just yet, but it is very worrisome how he lost control of the team in the 2nd half of the season. Like I said before, he reminds me a lot of Norv Turner. Good brain for the game, but not an effective leader.
- DavidM - 12-29-2008
Evan Wrote:most overrated: the defense. "top 5 in the league" on paper doesnt mean much when the D cant make critical stops in the 4th quarter, cant create turnovers, and cant put pressure on the qb.
The defense wasn't really the problem this year, it was the ineptitude of the offense as a whole. The D was 4th in YPG, 6th in PPG (1-5 and 7,9,11,12 and 13 all made the playoffs). Apart from a couple of meltdowns (yesterday included) the defense was actually pretty good.
It was our inability to score that killed us and if you look at the season trend its pretty obvious. In the first 8 games they scored 20.6 PPG, while scoring over 20 five times (all wins). In the second half they only managed 12.5 PPG and only reached 20 twice.
The two major issues to me were 1) The lack of a downfield threat; if we never go more than 15 yards downfield teams don't have to defend against it which hurts our intermediate passing game and 2) we should be using a two back system, it works so well for so many teams and giving Betts as few as 6-8 carries a game is a great change of pace and would help keep Portis healthy through the entire season.
- Evan - 12-29-2008
I didnt say it was part of the problem, I just said that its over rated. It looks good on paper using narrow windows of statistics, but as far as giving the ball back to the offense at critical times I dont think it was nearly as good as all the superlatives thrown around.
- Mike - 12-29-2008
no, i don't agree with you on horton. he got burnt on a single play... big whoop.
agreed, moss is nothing without someone to drop him some deep balls. i haven't seen brilliance from him in a few years now.
- Hunter - 12-30-2008
I don't think the defense is the problem either. The defense is good now, and I think they could be an elite D if they could get some help at DT. Everytime the QB drops back and Taylor or Carter come around the edge, there's a huge gap for the QB to step up into because the DT's don't push the pocket back at all.
Also, I don't necessarily blame the D for playing poorly late in games when they've been on the field all day because the offense hasn't done anything.
And I found this very telling stat:
The skins scored 265 points this year.
The 0-16 Lions scored 268.
- Feersty - 12-30-2008
Is Zorny back next year?
- stevegula - 12-31-2008
Zorny is back next year, they said that in week 15 or 16.
Trade Moss. Keep Portis. Keep Jason Taylor if he will take less money otherwise ditch him and draft someone. Horton is about 20 times better than the deaf guy he replaced - we were spoiled by Sean Taylor so no one will ever compare.
QUIT CALLING DUMP OFF PASSES WHEN IT IS 3RD AND 18.
Campbell needs to get his shit together. I can't believe that 170 yds, 3 TDs and 2 INTs is considered acceptable in the final four games of the season. It was great that he didn't turn over the ball by throwing picks in the beginning of the season but now I can't help but wonder if that continued because he decided to not even take chances and check down so quickly.
Which brings me back to my previous post - Why wasn't Colt Brennan given a chance to play against a 1st string D in the 49ers game? The game didn't matter, we need to find out if Campbell is expendable, if Brennan can step up, or if we need to find another QB.
Oh, and FIRE VINNY - that wide-eyed fuck is worthless. I had many people agree when I shouted that out in the Tysons theatre the other night when they ran that stupid ass BMW of Sterling ad. It was entertaining.
- Hunter - 02-27-2009
Offseason Super Bowl Champs!!!
I don't know about you guys, but I'm fairly torn about the signing of Haynesworth. First the bad, $41 mill guaranteed over three years is A LOT of money and I wonder how it's going to hamper us in the next couple years when we maybe looking to resign young guys like Landry, Rogers, Campbell and Mcintosh (if they step up and prove their worth). Not to mention the fact that his two best years were his contract years and he hasn't played a full 16 games season since his rookie season.
On the other hand, he's young for a DT at 27 and is just now entering his prime, not to mention the fact that he is the single best lineman in football. The skins were previously burned on free agency by signing guys who were either too old (Neon Deion and Bruce Smith) or vastly overpaid for what they had accomplished (Archuleta and Lloyd). At least this guy is legitimately a game changer and will improve the defense significantly.
Speaking of the defense, the skins had a good defense last year (4th in yards, 5th in points), but they weren't able to get after the QB at all and were bottom of the league in turnovers. It's a lot harder for the Offense to score points if they never get a short field. Maybe the Defense will turn into an elite unit like the steelers D was last year? And maybe they'll carry the Offense next year?
Also, it seems like Snyder is banking on an uncapped year in 2010 so he could accelerate a lot of contracts and alleviate potential cap issues. If there ends up being a new CBA and a salary cap next year the skins might be proper F'd? Although if there is an uncapped year Snyder might look like a genius.
- Evan - 03-02-2009
pretty much sums up my feelings
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what boggles my mind is the huge contract they gave to Hall. No other team would have paid him half as much, so why pay him a ton if you dont have to?
- lillitnn92 - 03-02-2009
i don't like either deal. we could have signed half a dozen people who would be a better overall fit for what we need with all that money. the haynesworth deal is just ridiculous. only way i would approve is if he is named defensive player of the year next year and we at least make it to the superbowl. all that money for someone who is a "gust of wind" away from being a TO or Adam Jones. the money he's getting is only going to fuel that possibility. remember he willingly stomped on someone's face with his cleats in a game a few years ago? i have a bad feeling about him.
...and it started in college.
Quote:"At the University of Tennessee, he had a history of issues with his temper. While a sophomore at Tennessee, he fought with a teammate and left practice, returning with a long pole looking for tackle Will Ofenheusle before coach Phillip Fulmer stopped him. He was suspended for a half of a game."
- Hunter - 03-02-2009
I don't like the Hall deal because he's most definitely not a top 3 CB in the league and he shouldn't be paid like one. I do like the Haynesworth signing though, especially considering it's really only a 4 year $48 million contract. I read this article the other day and it talks about how good he is from a pure statistical standpoint.
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Click link for entire article
Is Haynesworth worth $100 million?
By Stephen Oh
Is Albert Haynesworth worth $100 million?
In order to give the AccuScore answer to this question we first focused on the on-field impact Haynesworth had on the Titans in 2008.
Haynesworth has missed a number of games since the 2006 season. While it may be a concern that Haynesworth does get injured frequently and served an extended suspension in the past, his 12 missed games over the past three seasons is very useful to AccuScore in measuring his value.
To properly evaluate any football player you often cannot rely on his individual statistics, making his missed games good opportunities to measure the impact he had on the Titans. Haynesworth can dominate a game stuffing the run while also pressuring the QB. Rather than focus on Haynesworth's individual tackle, sack, and forced fumbles stats I looked at how opposing offenses performed 1) against the rest of the league; 2) against Tennessee when Haynesworth played; and 3) against Tennessee when Haynesworth was out.
MEASURING HAYNESWORTH'S IMPACT
To determine the impact Albert Haynesworth had as an individual player, AccuScore looked at how teams performed against the Titans both with and without Haynesworth in the lineup, as well as against the rest of the NFL.
Opposing Offense
Against Rest of League With Haynesworth Without Haynesworth
Explosive Run Rate 16% 13% 18%
Rush YPG 116 104 121
Completion Pct. 61.3% 59.6% 66.0%
Pass Yards per Att. 6.9 6.4 6.6
Pass TD per Att. 4.2% 2.6% 5.7%
Pass INT per Att. 2.9% 3.8% 2.6%
Sacked 6.3% 7.0% 4.3%
The stats above show Haynesworth had an enormous impact. Explosive runs are defined as runs that go for at least eight yards and indicate the ball carrier got to the second level of defense. The league average is 16 percent, but against the Titans with Haynesworth opposing offenses only did this 13 percent of the time. However, when Haynesworth was out that figure blossomed to 18 percent. With fewer long runs, opposing teams averaged just 104 rushing yards against Tennessee with Haynesworth, which is substantially better than the marks of 116 and 121 opposing teams ran against the rest of the league and against Tennessee without Haynesworth.
Haynesworth's presence also negatively impacts opposing passers. Completion percentages are down a full 6.4 percent when Haynesworth plays versus when he is out. Yards per attempt and TDs per attempt are down when Haynesworth plays. Pass interceptions and the rate that QBs get sacked are up considerably when Haynesworth plays.
Haynesworth is not 100 percent responsible for these statistical differences, because there are a number of different factors which also influence these fluctuations -- presence/absence of other key players, quality of opponents with and without Haynesworth and injuries to opposing offenses among them. However, Haynesworth's impact is readily apparent.
HAYNESWORTH MIGHT MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN WASHINGTON
For the sake of this analysis I am going to assume that Haynesworth's presence is largely responsible for the positive defensive improvement described above. This way we can evaluate whether Haynesworth is worth $100 million by seeing if he plays like one of the two or three best defensive players in the league.
In order to test the impact of a single player, AccuScore re-simulated the 2008 season with 2008 rosters. The 8-8 Redskins live up to these expectations in the "re-simulation," winning 52 percent of their game simulations which translates to an average of 8.4 wins per simulation.
We then added Haynesworth with the expectation that he will live up to his potential and be as good as he possibly can be. Under this rosy scenario for the Redskins, the Haynesworth impact is huge. The average wins increase by 2.2. Keep in mind that the season simulations include both extremely good (13-plus wins) and extremely bad seasons (fewer than six wins). To move the average by over two games is a very large impact.
MAXIMUM IMPACT
To evaluate whether or not Haynesworth is worth his new $100 million contract, AccuScore re-simulated the Redskins' 2008 season with and without their new defensive tackle.
Max. Impact
2008 Redskins 2008 Redskins with Haynesworth Haynesworth Impact
Avg. Win % (Per Game) 52% 66% +14%
Avg. Wins 8.4 10.6 +2.2 Wins
Playoff % 15.5% 48.0% +32.5%
Win NFC EAST 7.3% 30.1% +22.8%
This is why Haynesworth, and no one else, is worth $100 million with $41 million guaranteed. The salary will limit the Redskins' ability to sign other players in the coming years, but this one player's impact appears to justify the cost.
- DavidM - 03-02-2009
Hunter Wrote:Really Long Post...
While I'm not sure how much I buy into those 2008 season simulations I think those numbers with and without Haynesworth are very telling. While his personal numbers are excellent that's not where his impact with be most felt. His presence in the middle immediately makes our run defense better which will allow us to not have to put 8 men in the box, allowing Landry and Horton to both drop into pass coverage more often which will certainly help shore up a somewhat suspect secondary. At the same time this will allow the linebackers more leverage to move around the field and not have to worry so much about surrendering big runs up the middle.
On top of the run impact he's a tremendous pass rusher from the inside. He commands double teams nearly every play which will tremendously increase the production of the ends, which will hopefully include a healthy Jason Taylor. If Haynesworth plays up to his potential I think he has the potential to single-handedly move this defense from a good one to an elite defense in the league.
- Hunter - 03-02-2009
In other news... the skins just released Jason Taylor and that's a move I completely agree with. Cut your loses and save $8 mill on the salary cap this year.